Jordan’s King Abdullah II is ready to satisfy with United States President Donald Trump in Washington, DC, amid the latter’s repeated insistence that the monarch settle for Palestinians he wish to expel from Gaza so the US can take management of the enclave.
The thought got here up in Trump’s feedback – made alongside a smiling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu final week – that Palestinians needs to be “eliminated” from the devastated Gaza Strip. Trump has emphasised that, to his thoughts, the Palestinians wouldn’t return, making his concepts ethnic cleaning.
Jordan rejects the thought.
Trump’s feedback had been condemned not solely by Jordan but in addition Egypt, which Trump additionally stated ought to “take” Palestinians from Gaza, in addition to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
Nonetheless, Trump stated US monetary assist for Jordan and Egypt would power their hand.
“In the event that they don’t agree, I might conceivably withhold help,” Trump stated on Monday, the day earlier than assembly King Abdullah.
A purple line
US monetary backing for Jordan is vital – the nation was the fourth-highest recipient of US international help in 2023, with $1.72bn. However accepting the uprooting of thousands and thousands of Palestinians from Gaza could be a political non-starter for Amman, in accordance with analysts.
“Accepting one other wave of Palestinians into the nation stays a purple line,” Dima Toukan, a non-resident scholar on the Center East Institute, instructed Al Jazeera. “The king won’t budge on this matter.”
King Abdullah, a longtime US ally, has been below strain internationally and domestically for the reason that starting of Israel’s warfare on Gaza in October 2023.
Jordan’s place as a key regional ally to the US and a commerce accomplice with Israel has angered its overwhelmingly pro-Palestinian inhabitants, which additionally consists of a minimum of 2 million Palestinian refugees and Jordanians of Palestinian origin.
Any acceptance of Trump’s concepts, which have been likened to the Nakba wherein 750,000 Palestinians had been ethnically cleansed by Zionist gangs to declare the state of Israel in 1948, could be a recipe for home unrest and problem the monarchy’s legitimacy.
Protests in opposition to Israel’s warfare on Gaza, which has killed greater than 61,700 Palestinians, have taken place in Amman for a lot of the final 16 months.
Whereas they’ve calmed for the reason that ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, Jordanians took to the streets once more on Friday to protest in opposition to the thought of Trump displacing Palestinians from Gaza into Jordan.
“Jordanians had been clear with their messages throughout protests on Friday,” Toukan stated.
Anger can rapidly result in instability: An assault in September by a Jordanian killed three Israeli border guards.
“My sense is that the king is conveying a really pressing message that Trump’s disastrous ‘plan’ is successfully going to destroy Jordan,” Sean Yom, an affiliate professor of political science at Temple College, stated.
“The displacement/relocation thought broaches the existential worry of all Jordanians – throughout the board, from monarchy to society – that Israel will annex all of Palestine, and that resource-poor, socially-restive Jordan might be left selecting up the items.”
Assist troubles
However Jordan has to weigh up different issues with regards to Trump’s feedback.
Even earlier than Israel’s warfare on Gaza, the monarchy was below strain resulting from financial struggles that led to disenchantment amongst among the nation’s influential tribes.
Jordan is already getting a style of Trump’s potential to upend many years of monetary help after he introduced on the day of his inauguration that many of the US’s international help commitments could be frozen for 90 days.
Some Jordanians say they misplaced work or had their companies impacted by Trump’s choice. It’s also notable that whereas Egypt and Israel got exceptions on the international help freeze, Jordan’s place as a staunch regional ally didn’t defend it.
“Jordan is instantly dependent upon US help and safety help,” Yom stated. “The dominion is susceptible to geopolitical blackmail.”
Ever since Jordan and Israel signed the 1994 Wadi Araba peace settlement, the Hashemite Kingdom has been a key ally of the US with assist for it usually crossing administrations and social gathering traces.
However Trump’s strain might power Jordan and different regional allies to begin hedging their bets, analysts stated.
Jordan, Egypt and different Gulf states “are most likely trying to Russia and China”, Geoffrey Hughes, creator of the e-book Kinship, Islam and the Politics of Marriage in Jordan: Affection and Mercy, instructed Al Jazeera.
“So much will hinge on how a lot that scares the Trump administration and the way credible any menace of defection or hedging appears in gentle of the indicators popping out of Moscow and Beijing.”
Troops as a stick
To proceed working as traditional, Jordan must discover sufficient funding from international powers to fill a billion-dollar hole. Analysts stated the prospect of the total quantity being lined was unlikely.
However Jordan might have yet one more technique of leverage.
“The most important factor to observe is the stationing of US forces in Jordan,” Hughes stated.
There are about 3,000 US troops in Jordan, largely centered on countering ISIL (ISIS) in recent times, a part of a wider community of US troops ostensibly constructed as much as counter ISIL over the past decade, with different troops stationed in Syria and Iraq.
And but, with Trump in energy, even that leverage will not be as vital because it as soon as appeared.
The US president has break up from his predecessors, who positioned significance on a US presence within the area, talking about pulling US troops from Syria and Iraq.
Trump reiterated the intention to tug US troops from Syria in late January, leaving some to surprise if a US presence in Jordan could be a precedence.
It may additionally alter the Jordan-Israel relationship, giving Israel an excuse to intervene instantly with perceived “safety threats” inside Jordanian territory.
“Possibly Trump doesn’t even need [US troops in Jordan] … additionally they complicate any Israeli aggression that may very well be forthcoming,” stated Hughes.